Grain Analytics

Canadian Grain AnalyticsOur business is finding the best business growth opportunities by building a detailed understanding of the supply (competitors) and demand (market size) of the market place.  This requires the capacity to geographically align, connect and measure a firm’s service offering in comparison to its external market.  The analytical framework we use involves the idea of a network of trade areas or catchment areas.  We have effectively used this framework to solve and build network planning intelligence for a wide range of industries including the grain and crop protection industry.

 

Figure 1: Grain Elevator Trade Areas and Grain Surplus Deficit Estimates

Trade Area Definition

Quantifying and understanding the supply and demand of grain in your trade area is foundational to evaluating the performance of existing facilities and also planning for future expansion.   We use our proprietary spatial model to estimate the size and shape of a network of grain elevator delivery catchment areas.  These trade areas are the foundation to completing an accurate supply and demand picture at a detailed regional level.  Figure 1 illustrates the grain elevator delivery trade area network in Saskatchewan.

Figure 2: Grain Supply and Demand Table

Supply and Demand Analysis
The Exceed Analysis framework allows for a complete supply and demand picture at a detailed regional level. The system uses Statistics Canada supply and disposition data as a foundation but differs in that it incorporates other publicly available data including Canadian Grain Commission grain delivery point data through the use of our proprietary geographic spatial model (see figure 2). These detailed estimates allow us to estimate the movement of grain from surplus to deficit areas by truck (see figure 1) and/or by rural municipality (figure 3).  The model is also ideal for performing what if scenarios given potential changes to supply/demand, market structure, livestock numbers, transportation policies or competition.

Figure 3: Grain Surplus Deficits Estimates by Rural Municipality

Short and long-term forecasting

The detailed farm level supply and demand data by rural municipality and by major grains and oilseed forms the foundation for short and long-term revenue forecasting at a detailed regional level. Our advantage is that we don’t forecast sales in isolation from major competitors and we include risk within the analysis. We have extensive forecasting experience and have the ability to use a variety of intuitive, econometric, and mapping solutions when necessary. Our framework is ideal for doing “what if” scenarios for revenue planning.

Performance Metrics

Figure 4: Market Potential Quadrants

The best test of a business’ performance involves not only internal revenue and costs measures, but also a comparison against its external marketplace including both its competitive profile (supply) and market size (demand).  Our location intelligence capabilities allow us to do just that and effectively connects a firm to its external market.  This allows market intelligence metrics and analytics to be developed to find the best growth opportunities at a granular and actionable level including both market shares and realistic market potential.    Figure 4 compares existing sites by performance and market potential.  Market potential opportunities are then mapped and ranked.

New Site Selection and Network Optimization

For organizations with multiple outlets, network optimization is difficult to understand and analyze. Our proprietary spatial modeling process is an optimization framework. The process allows the comparison of a network of facilities with an optimized network given current competitor dynamics with a ranking of potential new opportunities. This allows for a direct comparison of existing facilities with potential expansion sites. In addition, the framework is ideally suited to modeling “what if” scenarios under uncertain business environments.

Figure 6: Saskatchewan: Grain Handling & Transportation System

Other Custom Analysis

  • Customer mapping, deciling and portfolio analysis
  • Competitor intelligence
  • Data mining and other predictive analysis
  • Market intelligence dashboarding (see figure 5)
  • Wall maps (see figure 6)
  • Custom market analytics

Figure 5: Market Analytics Dashboard

Our Advantage

Our Business – building granular understanding to find the best business growth opportunity stories
Our Delivery – discovering and sharing the best growth stories
Our Pricing Customized, flexible and staged to support client analytical needs

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